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Friday, February 20, 2026

USA & Canada Intelligence Transient for Thursday, February 19, 2026


What issues at this time

1 Trump offers Iran 10-day ultimatum: army able to strike from Saturday — At Board of Peace inaugural assembly: “You’re going to be discovering out over the subsequent most likely 10 days”; CBS: Pentagon briefed Trump army prepared for strikes as early as Feb 21; Axios: Trump adviser says “90% probability of kinetic motion in subsequent few weeks”; weeks-long joint US-Israel marketing campaign deliberate; USS Ford arriving jap Med imminently; Pentagon withdrawing some personnel from area forward of potential motion; WTI surges to $66.50 (+2%), Brent >$71; gold reclaims $5,000

2 Board of Peace inaugural assembly: $17B pledged, Gaza stabilization drive forming — Trump convened 40+ international locations at US Institute of Peace; US commits $10B; different members pledge $7B; Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Albania committing troops (goal: 20K troopers + 12K police); FIFA pledges $75M; Marc Rowan (Apollo): 100K houses, $30B infrastructure; key allies (UK, Germany, France) absent; Trump used occasion to subject Iran 10-day ultimatum

3 Epstein fallout deepens: Wexner deposed, Prince Andrew arrested in UK — Les Wexner deposed by Home Oversight Feb 18, mentioned he was “duped by a world-class con man”; VP Vance open to Prince Andrew congressional testimony; Andrew arrested in UK at this time (misconduct in public workplace); DOJ January file launch triggering world penalties; EPAM −21% on cautious steering; Deere +13% on Q1 beat

4 Walmart beats This fall however FY27 steering disappoints; markets unload on Iran fears — EPS $0.74 (beat $0.73); income $190.7B; FY27 information $2.75–$2.85 vs $2.97 anticipated; Deere +13% on beat and raised steering; S&P 500 −0.6%, Dow −0.9% on Iran + Walmart + oil spike; jobless claims 206K (beat 223K); commerce deficit surged to $70.3B

01
Market Snapshot
Intraday Feb 19

INDEX / PAIR LEVEL DAY CHG SIGNAL
S&P 500 6,838 −0.6% ▼ Iran strike fears + WMT steering; beneath 50-day MA
Dow Jones 49,226 −0.9% ▼ Nike −1.5%, GS −1.4%; WMT −0.5%, DE +6%
Nasdaq 22,605 −0.7% ▼ EPAM −21% on cautious outlook; DE +13% on beat
Russell 2000 2,645 −0.5% ▼ Small caps fading; VIX +5.6% to twenty.7
S&P/TSX 33,200 −0.6% ▼ Pulls again from Wed file 33,390; vitality offsets
USD/CAD 1.370 +0.2% ▲ CAD weakens; tariff overhang persists
DXY (Greenback) 97.63 +0.6% ▲ Protected-haven bid; hawkish Fed + geopolitical danger
10yr UST 4.08% −0bp ▶ Flat; oil-driven inflation vs safe-haven shopping for
WTI Crude $66.50 +2.0% ▲ 2026 excessive; Iran strike fears; Brent >$71
Gold $5,002 flat ▶ Reclaims $5K on geopolitical hedge; greenback caps
Bitcoin $66,624 −0.3% ▼ Danger-off; MSTR, MARA below stress

02
Battle & Stability Tracker

Crucial

US-Iran Navy Standoff: Largest Center East Buildup Since June 2025

Pentagon deploying twin service strike teams, submarines, air defences. USS Gerald R. Ford en route (off Morocco, anticipated Israel neighborhood by weekend); USS Abraham Lincoln on station. Iran IRGC performed live-fire drills in Strait of Hormuz (Feb 16–17), briefly closing the waterway — 20% of worldwide oil transits. Iran-Russia-China “Maritime Safety Belt 2026” joint naval train launched Feb 19 in Gulf of Oman. Geneva talks produced “guiding ideas” however Khamenei rejects US demand to forgo enrichment. Rubio to Israel Feb 28. WTI at 2026 excessive; Brent above $71.

Crucial

Trump’s 10-Day Iran Ultimatum: Navy Able to Strike from Saturday

On the Board of Peace inaugural assembly, Trump mentioned the world will “discover out within the subsequent most likely 10 days” whether or not there can be a deal or army motion. CBS Information: Pentagon briefed Trump the army is prepared for strikes as early as Saturday Feb 21. Axios: Trump adviser places “90% probability of kinetic motion in subsequent few weeks.” A weeks-long joint US-Israel marketing campaign is deliberate. USS Gerald R. Ford arriving jap Med imminently; USS Abraham Lincoln on station; 50 F-35/F-22/F-16 jets deployed Feb 17–18. Pentagon withdrawing some personnel from the area as precaution. Iran-Russia-China “Maritime Safety Belt 2026” launched at this time. WTI at 2026 excessive $66.50; Brent above $71.

Tense

Board of Peace Inaugural Assembly: $17B Pledged for Gaza Reconstruction

Trump convened 40+ nation representatives in Washington. US commits $10B; different members pledge $7B. 5 international locations (Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Albania) committing troops to Worldwide Stabilization Power (goal drive: 20,000 troopers + 12,000 police). FIFA pledges $75M for soccer services. Marc Rowan (Apollo): 100,000 houses for 500,000 residents; $30B infrastructure over time. Key allies (UK, Germany, France) absent. No Palestinian illustration. Trump used occasion to subject Iran 10-day ultimatum.

Tense

Epstein Recordsdata Fallout Intensifies: Les Wexner Deposed, Congressional Probes Increase

Home Oversight deposed Les Wexner on Feb 18 over Epstein ties. VP Vance mentioned he’d be “open” to former Prince Andrew testifying earlier than Congress. Andrew arrested in UK at this time over misconduct linked to Epstein recordsdata — most high-profile legal consequence of DOJ’s January doc launch. Epstein recordsdata have triggered resignations and departures throughout enterprise and European politics. Measles: 800+ circumstances throughout 23 states linked to vaccine disinformation.

Tense

US-Canada Commerce Conflict: 35% Tariffs, Diversification Accelerates

US tariffs at 35% on Canadian items. Home voted 219–211 (Feb 11) to finish tariffs; 6 GOP defections; Senate vote pending, Trump veto sure. Trump threatened 100% if Canada “makes cope with China.” Carney constructing EU–CPTPP bridge; Gordie Howe Bridge standoff; CUSMA evaluation in 2026. GM citing $3–4B tariff price. Canadian GDP lowered 1.5–2%.

Watching

Ukraine-Russia Geneva Talks: Cautious Progress, Parallel Diplomatic Bandwidth Pressure

Two-day US-mediated trilateral talks concluded. Moscow: “tough however business-like”; Kyiv: “substantive with progress.” Subsequent spherical in Switzerland. Ukraine and Iran crises consuming parallel White Home diplomatic bandwidth. EU accepted €90B Ukraine mortgage for 2026–27.

03
Quick Take

IRANTrump offers Iran 10 days: army able to strike from Saturday — Board of Peace speech: “You’re going to be discovering out over the subsequent most likely 10 days”; CBS: Pentagon briefed army readiness for strikes as early as Feb 21; Axios adviser: “90% probability of kinetic motion in subsequent few weeks”; weeks-long joint US-Israel marketing campaign deliberate; 50 jets deployed; USS Ford arriving; Pentagon withdrawing some personnel; Leavitt: “many causes for a strike”; Iran: “no nation can deprive us of enrichment”

MILITARYLargest US Center East buildup since Iraq Conflict: twin carriers, 50 jets, nuclear hardening — USS Ford CSG arriving jap Med; USS Lincoln on station; 50 F-35/F-22/F-16 jets deployed Feb 17–18; F-15Es to Jordan; Pentagon withdrawing some personnel forward of potential motion; Iran IRGC closed Hormuz for live-fire drills Feb 16–17; Russia-China-Iran “Maritime Safety Belt 2026” launched Feb 19; satellite tv for pc imagery: Taleghan 2 wrapped in concrete; Chinese language anti-stealth radar deployed; EU designated IRGC terrorist org at this time

EARNINGSWalmart This fall beat; FY27 steering disappoints; Deere surges — WMT: EPS $0.74 (beat $0.73); income $190.7B (+4.9% CC); eCommerce +24%; annual rev surpassed $700B first time; promoting +46% to $6.4B; $30B buyback; FY27 EPS information $2.75–$2.85 vs $2.96 anticipated; inventory +2.2% after preliminary −2% drop; first CEO Furner name; Deere +13% on Q1 earnings beat and raised steering; This fall S&P 500 earnings +12.8% YoY (371 of 500 reported)

GAZABoard of Peace launches with $17B: Gaza reconstruction plan unveiled — Inaugural assembly at US Institute of Peace; Trump: US commits $10B; seven international locations pledge $7B; Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan committing troops; FIFA $75M for services; Apollo’s Rowan: 100K houses for 500K residents in Rafah, $30B infrastructure over time; UK/Germany/France absent; no Palestinian representatives; Trump: BoP will “look over” the UN; Norway to host future occasion

CANADACarney builds anti-tariff coalition; TSX file on commodity surge — Main EU–CPTPP buying and selling bloc talks; Davos: “rules-based order was partially false”; Home voted 219–211 to finish Canada tariffs (Feb 11); auto import credit score scheme; TSX file 33,390 Wed (+1.5%); Shopify +7.6%, gold miners surged; $3.1B meals affordability package deal; Carney in BC assembly legislation enforcement, then cheering ladies’s hockey gold medal recreation vs USA

ENERGYOil surges on Iran fears; WTI at 2026 excessive above $65 — WTI jumped 4.6% Wed to $64.89, above $65 Thu; Brent topped $71; Hormuz handles 20% world oil; IRGC drills + Russia-China workouts; US stock construct 13.4M barrels partially offsets; crude at “new intraday excessive for 2026”; Canadian vitality rallied: CNQ, Suncor, Cenovus +1.5–3.4%

POLITICSDemocrats develop congressional lead; Olympics: Canada vs USA hockey gold — YouGov: Dems 47% vs GOP 40% on 2026 poll (largest lead this cycle); Epstein: Les Wexner deposed by Home Oversight (Feb 18); Lake Tahoe avalanche: 8 backcountry skiers useless; measles: 800+ circumstances throughout 23 states; Milano Cortina: Canada vs USA ladies’s hockey gold medal recreation tonight; males’s semifinal vs Finland Friday

EPSTEINEpstein fallout deepens: Wexner deposed, congressional probes develop — Les Wexner deposed by Home Oversight Feb 18, mentioned he was “duped by a world-class con man”; VP Vance open to Prince Andrew testifying earlier than Congress; Andrew arrested in UK at this time (first royal arrest in centuries; misconduct in public workplace); DOJ January file launch continues triggering world resignations and departures throughout enterprise and politics; Lake Tahoe avalanche: 8 backcountry skiers useless

04
Developments to Watch

SECURITY / GEOPOLITICSTrump’s 10-Day Countdown: The Most Harmful Week in US-Iran Relations

President Trump set an specific timeline on Thursday. Talking on the Board of Peace inaugural assembly in Washington, he instructed world leaders: “You’re going to be discovering out over the subsequent most likely 10 days” whether or not the US will strike Iran or attain a deal. It was his most direct public ultimatum but.

The army infrastructure is already in place. CBS Information reported that high nationwide safety officers briefed Trump on Wednesday that the Pentagon is prepared for strikes as early as Saturday, February 21. Fifty fighter jets — F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s — had been deployed to the area between February 17 and 18. The USS Abraham Lincoln service strike group is on station within the Arabian Sea; the USS Gerald R. Ford is transiting the Mediterranean and anticipated to reach inside days. The Pentagon is withdrawing some personnel from the area as a precautionary measure forward of potential Iranian retaliation.

An unnamed Trump adviser instructed Axios there’s a “90% probability we see kinetic motion within the subsequent few weeks.” US and Israeli officers described a possible operation as a “large, weeks-long marketing campaign” — one thing bigger than the 12-day bombardment in June 2025. Senator Lindsey Graham mentioned the naval buildup is “not right here as a result of it’s good this time of yr.”

Iran shouldn’t be backing down. Its atomic vitality chief mentioned no nation can deprive Iran of its proper to nuclear enrichment. Russia and Iran launched joint naval workouts within the Gulf of Oman on Thursday, with China taking part. The Strait of Hormuz — via which 20% of worldwide oil transits — stays a flashpoint. Oil is at 2026 highs. The following 10 days will decide whether or not this turns into the most important Center Jap battle for the reason that Iraq Conflict.

SECURITY / GEOPOLITICSIran’s Response: Nuclear Hardening, Hormuz Drills, and the Russia-China Axis

Because the US positions for a potential strike, Iran is concurrently making ready for battle and sustaining a diplomatic channel. The image that emerges is of a regime hedging throughout each dimension.

Militarily, satellite tv for pc imagery reveals Iran fortifying its nuclear websites. The Taleghan 2 facility has been wrapped in a concrete sarcophagus and buried with soil. Isfahan tunnel entrances are being sealed underground. Chinese language-supplied YLC-8B anti-stealth radar has been deployed, designed to detect F-35s and B-2 bombers. Iran has additionally acquired Russian MiG-29 fighters and Mi-28NE gunships.

On February 16–17, the IRGC performed “Good Management of the Strait of Hormuz” live-fire workouts, briefly closing the waterway via which 20% of worldwide oil transits. On Thursday, Iran and Russia launched the “Maritime Safety Belt 2026” joint naval train within the Gulf of Oman, with China taking part. The trilateral naval axis sends a transparent sign that any US army motion may have broader geopolitical penalties.

Diplomatically, two rounds of oblique talks have produced “guiding ideas” however no breakthrough. Iran’s atomic vitality chief declared that “no nation can deprive the Islamic Republic of its proper to nuclear enrichment.” Supreme Chief Khamenei warned that the “strongest army drive could also be struck so arduous it can’t stand up once more.” The EU formally designated the IRGC as a terrorist organisation on February 19, including one other layer of stress.

CORPORATEWalmart’s $1 Trillion Drawback: Beat the Quarter, Missed the Yr

Walmart delivered a robust This fall below new CEO John Furner: EPS of $0.74 beat consensus by a penny, income of $190.7 billion (+4.9% fixed forex) topped estimates, and the corporate surpassed $700 billion in annual income for the primary time. E-commerce grew 24% globally, with 35% of store-fulfilled orders delivered in below three hours. The promoting enterprise surged 46% to $6.4 billion. Working money circulate hit $42 billion.

However the inventory initially fell 2% premarket on the FY2027 outlook. Walmart guided for EPS of $2.75–$2.85, effectively beneath the $2.96 consensus. Gross sales progress steering of three.5–4.5% and working earnings progress of 6–8% fell brief. CFO Rainey cited an “unstable backdrop.” The inventory recovered to +2.2% as traders parsed the $30 billion buyback and potential for steering beats later within the yr.

Individually, Deere jumped 13% after beating Q1 estimates and elevating full-year steering, a sign that agricultural and industrial tools demand could also be stabilising regardless of tariff headwinds. With 74% of S&P 500 corporations having reported, This fall earnings are up 12.8% year-over-year.

GEOPOLITICS / GAZABoard of Peace: Trump’s $17 Billion Wager on Remaking Gaza — and the UN

The inaugural assembly of the Board of Peace on the US Institute of Peace introduced collectively representatives from greater than 40 international locations — however the absences had been as notable because the attendees. The UK, Germany, and France declined invites. There was no Palestinian illustration, although Israel’s Overseas Minister Gideon Sa’ar gave the longest speech of any world chief.

Trump introduced the US would contribute $10 billion, whereas seven different international locations — together with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and Morocco — pledged a mixed $7 billion. 5 international locations dedicated troops to the Worldwide Stabilization Power for Gaza: 20,000 troopers and 12,000 police deliberate. FIFA pledged $75 million for a nationwide stadium and soccer services. Apollo CEO Marc Rowan outlined an preliminary plan for 100,000 houses for 500,000 residents in Rafah, with a long-term imaginative and prescient of 400,000 houses and $30 billion in infrastructure.

The assembly ran like a Cupboard session, with world leaders utilizing their two-minute talking slots to reward Trump. Trump himself used the platform for his most important geopolitical assertion of the day: the 10-day Iran ultimatum. He additionally mentioned the Board of Peace would “virtually be wanting over” the United Nations — reinforcing issues amongst European allies that the physique is being positioned as a rival to multilateral establishments.

The basic query stays whether or not a plan with no Palestinian enter, absent key Western allies, and depending on a fragile ceasefire can ship on these extraordinary monetary commitments.

TRADE / CANADACarney’s Grand Technique: Constructing a Publish-American Commerce Structure

Canada’s response to the US tariff warfare is evolving from injury management to strategic repositioning. Prime Minister Mark Carney is spearheading talks to create a buying and selling bloc bridging the EU and the CPTPP. At Davos, his speech warning that the “rules-based worldwide order was partially false” was broadly seen as a direct rebuke to Trump.

The Home voted 219–211 on February 11 to finish Trump’s tariffs on Canada, with six Republicans breaking ranks. The decision heads to the Senate however faces a sure presidential veto. Trump threatened political retribution in opposition to any Republican opposing tariffs.

On the bottom, US tariffs at 35% inflict actual injury. Economists estimate Canadian GDP has been lowered by 1.5–2%. GM cited $3–4 billion in tariff prices. Canada is revamping its auto tariff system with an “import credit score” scheme to draw Asian automakers. The Gordie Howe Bridge has change into a flashpoint after Trump threatened to dam its opening.

The TSX hit a file 33,390 on Wednesday, led by Shopify (+7.6%), gold miners, and vitality shares. The commodity-heavy benchmark is outperforming US friends year-to-date, boosted by the Iran-driven oil surge and gold close to $5,000.

MARKETSMarkets Promote Off Laborious as Iran Strike Fears Dominate

US equities had been firmly decrease on Thursday as Iran strike fears drove oil increased and danger urge for food decrease. The Dow fell 0.9% (−426 factors), the S&P 500 dropped 0.6% to six,838 — decisively beneath its 50-day shifting common — and the Nasdaq misplaced 0.7%. The VIX jumped 5.6% to twenty.7, its highest degree in over per week.

The promoting was pushed by a confluence of negatives: Trump’s specific 10-day ultimatum to Iran, CBS reporting army readiness for strikes from Saturday, Walmart’s cautious FY27 steering, and crude oil surging 2% to $66.50 (WTI’s 2026 excessive) with Brent above $71. Gold reclaimed $5,000 as a geopolitical hedge.

Brilliant spots had been restricted. Deere surged 13% on a Q1 earnings beat and raised full-year steering, with CEO Might citing restoration in building and small agriculture. eBay rose 7% on its Depop/Etsy deal. EPAM fell 21% regardless of beating estimates, punished for cautious natural progress steering.

Financial information was combined: preliminary jobless claims plunged to 206,000 (from 227,000, effectively beneath 223,000 consensus), an indication of labour market resilience. However the December commerce deficit surged to $70.3 billion, up $17.3 billion and much above the $55.5 billion forecast. Friday’s PCE inflation report looms giant — a scorching print on high of Iran escalation might speed up the selloff.

05
Sovereign & Credit score Pulse

COUNTRY KEY DEVELOPMENT CREDIT SIGNAL
United States FOMC rate-hike debate; DHS shutdown Day 6; PCE due Fri Hawkish pivot lifts yields; Fed management transition danger; deficit issues persist
Canada 35% US tariffs; GDP hit 1.5–2%; commerce diversification TSX at file; CUSMA evaluation looms; 100% tariff menace if China deal deepens
Iran Nuclear hardening; Hormuz drills; US buildup; EU IRGC designation Excessive battle danger; oil disruption priced into Brent $71+
Ukraine Geneva trilateral talks; US brokering alongside Iran disaster Diplomatic bandwidth pressure; EU €90B mortgage backstop
China Becoming a member of Iran-Russia naval drills; Canada commerce friction Hormuz presence complicates US planning; commerce realignment

06
Key Gamers & Quotes

Donald Trump (US President) — Board of Peace: “You’re going to be discovering out over the subsequent most likely 10 days”; “dangerous issues will occur” if Iran doesn’t make a deal; army briefed on strike readiness

Marc Rowan (Apollo CEO, Board of Peace exec committee) — Outlined Gaza rebuilding plan: 100K houses for 500K residents in Rafah; $30B infrastructure; “This isn’t an issue of cash. It is a drawback of peace”

Ali Khamenei (Iran Supreme Chief) — Warned the “strongest army drive could also be struck so arduous it can’t stand up once more”; rejected key US nuclear calls for

Mark Carney (Canadian PM) — Constructing EU–CPTPP commerce bloc; denied FTA with China; Feb 19: assembly BC legislation enforcement, cheering ladies’s hockey gold medal recreation

John Furner (Walmart CEO, first earnings name) — On AI: “Agentic Commerce is gonna be nice for our clients”; guided conservatively citing “unstable backdrop”

Karoline Leavitt (WH Press Secretary) — On Iran: “Diplomacy is at all times his first possibility” however “there are numerous causes one might make for a strike”

07
Regulatory & Coverage Watch

US tariffs on Canada — 35% on most items; Home voted 219–211 to finish; Senate pending, Trump veto sure; CUSMA necessary evaluation in 2026; Gordie Howe Bridge standoff

Fed management transition — Powell exits Might; Warsh nomination anticipated; institutional guardrails to protect independence; market pricing smaller stability sheet

EU IRGC terrorist designation — Formally enacted Feb 19; follows Hormuz drills and protester crackdown; first such designation of Iranian army wing

Canada import credit score scheme — Carney launching consultations to revamp auto tariffs; designed to draw Asian automakers; maintains counter-tariffs on US autos

DHS reforms demanded — 10 circumstances: physique cameras, masks off, use-of-force requirements, warrants for personal property, impartial evaluation board, disciplinary data transparency

08
Upcoming Occasions

DATE EVENT SIGNIFICANCE
Feb 20 PCE Value Index (Dec); This fall GDP advance; Michigan sentiment Fed’s most well-liked inflation gauge; 2.8% YoY consensus; GDP anticipated 3.0%
Feb 22 Milano Cortina: Olympics closing ceremony Canada medal depend; ladies’s hockey gold determined tonight
Feb 23 Congress returns from recess DHS funding negotiations resume; potential shutdown decision
Feb 24 State of the Union deal with Might deal with DHS shutdown, Iran, tariffs; might announce Fed nominee
Feb 26 NVIDIA This fall earnings Bellwether for AI capex cycle; Meta dedicated to tens of millions of NVDA chips
Feb 28 Rubio visits Israel re: Iran Replace on nuclear talks; could sign army timeline
~Mar 1 Iran anticipated to submit nuclear proposals Crucial diplomatic checkpoint; failure might set off escalation
Mar 18 FOMC price choice 95% maintain; doubtlessly first assembly below new chair if Warsh confirmed

09
Strategic Evaluation

Right this moment was outlined by a single query: is the US about to go to warfare with Iran?Trump’s 10-day ultimatum transforms the Iran disaster from latent menace to lively countdown. The mixture of an specific presidential timeline, CBS affirmation of army readiness from Saturday, Axios reporting a 90% likelihood evaluation from a Trump adviser, and the bodily deployment of the most important air and naval drive to the Center East for the reason that Iraq Conflict creates a reputable and imminent menace of battle. That is now not a negotiating tactic with believable deniability — it’s a public dedication to a choice level. Oil’s surge to 2026 highs displays the market starting to cost this in. A full Hormuz closure could be an unprecedented shock to world vitality markets.

The Board of Peace is Trump’s most formidable multilateral gambit. $17 billion in pledges, troop commitments from 5 international locations, and FIFA involvement give it substance. However the absence of the UK, Germany, France, and any Palestinian representatives raises elementary questions on legitimacy. The board’s positioning as a possible rival to the UN — Trump mentioned it will “look over” the establishment — could deepen the rift with European allies at exactly the second Washington wants allied assist on Iran. The Epstein recordsdata’ fallout continues to develop domestically: Wexner’s Home deposition and Vance’s openness to Andrew’s congressional testimony sign the investigations are accelerating.

Markets are accurately positioning for danger. The S&P 500 is beneath its 50-day shifting common with the VIX rising sharply. The mixture of Iran strike fears, a scorching oil market, Walmart’s cautious steering, and Friday’s PCE inflation print creates a gauntlet for bulls. Vitality producers and gold are the pure hedges. The commerce deficit surge to $70.3 billion provides a structural concern.

Backside line: The following 10 days are essentially the most consequential interval for world markets and safety for the reason that June 2025 Iran bombings. Both diplomacy produces a breakthrough or the US launches a army marketing campaign that would reshape the Center East. Place defensively.

USA & Canada Intelligence Transient

February 19, 2026 — Thursday Version

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