Key Factors
- A Chaves-aligned candidate is close to 40%, the extent that may finish the race on February 1.
- File violence is pushing voters towards tougher safety measures, together with an emergency-style possibility.
- The deeper stake is institutional, as courts and constitutional guidelines may very well be rewritten after the vote.
Costa Rica votes on February 1, 2026. If a ticket wins 40% of votes, it wins outright. If not, the highest two go to a runoff on April 5.
That math explains the opposition’s technique. It’s attempting to carry the front-runner under 40%. It hopes to unify in spherical two. The sphere is crowded, with 20 presidential candidacies.
The favourite is Laura Fernández of the Partido Pueblo Soberano. She is backed by President Rodrigo Chaves. The College of Costa Rica’s CIEP ballot put her close to 44% amongst seemingly voters. A small shift may nonetheless drive April.
Her challengers are cut up. Álvaro Ramos of the PLN has polled round 9%. Claudia Dobles of Agenda Ciudadana has been close to him. She is linked to the 2018–2022 authorities of Carlos Alvarado.
Ariel Robles of the Frente Amplio has been close to 4%. José Aguilar Berrocal of Avanza has been close to 3%. He’s tied by household to Nayib Bukele.
Costa Rica Election Hinges On Safety
Juan Carlos Hidalgo of the PUSC has risen late. Fabricio Alvarado has fallen to about 1.5%.Turnout could resolve the brink. About 3.7 million Costa Ricans can vote. Round 26% stated they have been undecided late.
In 2022, abstention was about 40%. One other drop would amplify late swings. Crime is the marketing campaign’s organizing truth. Costa Rica has no military and bought stability.
Drug routes and port battles have introduced extra violence. Greater than 900 homicides have been recorded in 2023, the deadliest yr on report.
Fernández alerts harder enforcement and echoes El Salvador’s strategy. In debates, candidates mentioned a “state of exception” model device.
Critics warn it may well allow abuses and political stress. Social media has sharpened the tone. Chaves additionally pushes constitutional change to “clear up” the judiciary and empower the chief.
He can not run once more earlier than 2034. Opponents argue new guidelines may reshape that restrict. A robust bloc within the 57-seat legislature would pace reforms.
