At this time’s Key Themes
- Offshore oil milestone → Petrobras hits 2.4M bpd common in 2025, up 11% YoY and above steering, bolstering exports and vitality safety through pre-salt ramps like Búzios and Tupi
- Auto sector drag → Brazil’s 2025 restoration cooled with manufacturing at 2.64M automobiles (up 3.5% however under targets) and gross sales up 2.1%, hit by costly credit score extending substitute cycles
- Housing builders resilient → Moura Dubeux posts document R$4.6B launches and R$698M This autumn gross sales however shares slip on doable R$250-500M providing; reasonably priced gamers Plano&Plano and Cury develop full-year VGV 38% and 26% regardless of This autumn slowdowns
- Ibovespa document streak → Index hits one other document as banks lead, greenback slides and international danger temper improves
- Foreign money stability → Actual holds its floor close to R$5.37 regardless of international greenback firmness
- Metals correction → Treasured and industrial metals pull again from extremes on profit-taking and firmer USD
Broader danger: Fiscal changes, political election maneuvers, and geopolitical tensions might amplify EM volatility, impacting FX, equities, and commodities
Financial Agenda for January 16, 2026
Brazil
- 6:00 AM BRT – IGP-10 Inflation Index (MoM) (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 0.0%
- 7:00 AM BRT – IBC-Br Financial Exercise (Nov) Cons: 0.30% Prev: -0.20%
- 7:00 AM BRT – Brazilian PPI (MoM) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: -0.48%
Mexico
Argentina
Chile
Colombia
United States
- 9:15 AM EST – Capability Utilization Price (Dec) Cons: 76.0% Prev: 76.0%
- 9:15 AM EST – Industrial Manufacturing (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.1% Prev: 0.2%
- 9:15 AM EST – Industrial Manufacturing (YoY) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 2.52%
Canada
- 8:15 AM EST – Housing Begins (Dec) Cons: 257.0K Prev: 254.1K
- 8:30 AM EST – International Securities Purchases (Nov) Cons: 24.61B Prev: 46.62B
- 8:30 AM EST – International Securities Purchases by Canadians (Nov) Cons: – Prev: -11.580B
EU
- 2:00 AM CET – German CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.0% Prev: -0.2%
- 2:00 AM CET – German CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 1.8% Prev: 2.3%
- 2:00 AM CET – German HICP (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.2% Prev: -0.5%
UK
- 40 min – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks Cons: – Prev: –
- 8:00 AM GMT – NIESR Month-to-month GDP Tracker (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -0.1%
India
- 6:30 AM IST – FX Reserves, USD Cons: – Prev: 686.80B
Implication: At this time’s Brazilian inflation and exercise knowledge are predominant home focuses — stronger figures might affirm resilience, supporting actual & equities amid oil power and monetary scrutiny.
U.S. industrial metrics and rig counts are international spotlights: strong knowledge would possibly mood rate-cut hopes, bolstering greenback and weighing on EM; softer reads would gas easing bets, lifting danger property like BRL.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Thursday, January 15, 2026)
Ibovespa +0.26% to 165,568.32 on R$27.5 billion turnover. Banks and locals led with VAMO3 +7.61%, MGLU3 +4.05%, MULT3 +2.83%; commodities blended amid international danger enchancment.
Commodity Markets
- Gold – Round $4,603.44/oz down 0.26%; edging decrease after stronger U.S. numbers lifted the greenback and diminished near-term Fed minimize expectations, trimming demand at document ranges.
- Silver – Round $90.90/oz down 1.60%; correcting after an outsized surge, with volatility and profit-taking stronger than in gold.
- Copper – Round $5.89/lb (~$12,985/ton) down 1.70%; retreating from excessive highs as discuss grows that the rally has turn out to be crowded and susceptible to a correction.
- Platinum – Round $2,353.10/oz down 2.36%; giving again a part of a quick rally, with profit-taking hitting onerous because the safe-haven bid softens.
- Palladium – Round $1,803.50/oz down 3.86%; dropping with the broader pullback in treasured metals because the greenback companies and rate-cut hopes cool after upbeat U.S. knowledge.
- Aluminium – Round $3,133.50/ton down 1.16%; pulling again after a robust run, monitoring the softer tone throughout danger property and industrial metals.
- Iron Ore – Round $107.39/ton unchanged; stale buying and selling with no significant quantity.
Foreign money
Brazilian Actual → Held floor with greenback easing to close 5.3681; pushed by geopolitics easing (Iran dangers cooling) and native politics (election narratives); technicals consolidating with RSI low-to-mid 40s, pivot at 5.355 help.
Corporations and Market
Petrobras Hits 2.4 Million bpd in 2025, Strengthening Brazil’s Offshore Output Story → Averaged 2.4M bpd oil (up 11% YoY), whole 2.99M boe/d; above steering through pre-salt ramps like Búzios P-78 and Tupi tweaks; helps exports regardless of strikes.
Brazil’s Auto Restoration Cooled In 2025, And The Weak Spot Was Credit score → Manufacturing 2.64M automobiles (up 3.5% however missed targets), gross sales 2.69M (up 2.1%); exports +32.1%; credit score prices prolonged cycles, imports rose to 18.5% share.
Moura Dubeux Beats Expectations, Then Slips on a Doable Share Sale → This autumn launches R$998M (up 115%), gross sales R$698M (up 34%); money burn R$28M; potential R$250-500M providing for reasonably priced development, dilution ~10-19%.
Launches Slowed however Brazil’s Reasonably priced Builders Stored 2025 Progress Alive → Plano&Plano (+38% VGV) and Cury (+26% VGV) present resilience in low-income section regardless of This autumn moderation.
U.S. Markets Yesterday (Thursday, January 15, 2026)
Rebound: Dow +0.6% to 49,442.44, S&P 500 +0.26% to six,944.47, Nasdaq +0.25% to 23,530.02. Semiconductors and large banks led after sturdy earnings; small caps outperformed.
Regional Friends — Combined:
Colombia peso holds agency as shares hit information however crowding dangers rise
After a document excessive, Mexico’s peso meets a inventory market actuality verify
After a high-stakes rollover, Argentina’s peso holds whereas shares cool
Chile’s peso and shares hit a crossroad as copper cools and merchants reposition
Word: Crypto markets cool after a quick squeeze as Bitcoin holds $95,000
