Key Factors
— Brazil shipped simply 2.78 million luggage of espresso in January, down 31% from a 12 months earlier, as falling worldwide costs and a stronger actual discouraged producers from promoting — though export revenues solely fell 12% because of still-elevated value ranges.
— Arabica exports dropped 29% and robusta plunged 46%, with Cecafé president Márcio Ferreira warning that well-capitalized growers see no urgency to promote and the hunch might final till the subsequent harvest arrives in June.
— The pullback comes simply as Conab forecasts Brazil’s 2026 crop at a file 66.2 million luggage — a 17% leap — elevating the query of whether or not the world’s prime producer is about to flood the promote it simply starved.
For 2 years, the world’s espresso patrons paid no matter Brazil requested. Now that costs are lastly softening, Brazilian growers are responding not by promoting extra cheaply however by refusing to promote in any respect — and it’s exhibiting up within the export numbers.
Brazil exported 2.78 million 60-kilogram luggage of espresso in January, a 31% decline from the identical month a 12 months in the past, in keeping with information launched Tuesday by the Brazilian Espresso Exporters Council (Cecafé).
Export revenues totaled $1.175 billion, down 12% year-on-year — a milder fall that displays costs nonetheless properly above historic averages, even after a pointy retreat that started in late January and accelerated into February.
The decline was broad. Arabica shipments fell 29% to 2.35 million luggage, whereas robusta and conilon exports collapsed by 46% to simply 182,000 luggage. Processed espresso — soluble, roasted and floor — dropped 32% to 252,000 luggage.
Cecafé president Márcio Ferreira attributed the pullback to a convergence of bearish alerts. Expectations of a file 2026/27 harvest pushed arabica futures to a five-and-a-half-month low by late January, whereas a strengthening actual in opposition to the greenback made exports much less worthwhile in native forex phrases.
Crucially, farmers who pocketed file earnings in 2024 and 2025 really feel no monetary stress to lock in decrease costs now. “Producers are capitalized from the nice costs of current years,” Ferreira mentioned. “That is what’s driving the sharp discount in volumes, and it ought to proceed till the subsequent harvest.”
That subsequent harvest is shaping as much as be huge. Conab’s first official forecast, revealed final week, initiatives Brazil will produce 66.2 million luggage in 2026 — a 17% improve that will shatter the earlier file of 63.1 million set in 2020.
Arabica output alone is anticipated to surge 23% to 44.1 million luggage because the crop enters the high-yielding part of its biennial cycle, supported by improved rainfall in Minas Gerais and expanded planting throughout São Paulo and Bahia.
The paradox for world espresso markets is stark. World shares sit close to their lowest ranges in 25 years, but the world’s largest provider is withholding beans in anticipation of a bumper crop that might flip the market from shortage to surplus inside months.
For roasters in Europe, Asia and the Americas already paying near-record costs, the January information affords a irritating sign: aid is probably going coming, however not earlier than Brazilian farmers resolve the subsequent harvest is shut sufficient to start out letting go.
