This week options the FOMC Minutes, a US information deluge (GDP, PCE, housing, industrial manufacturing), international PMI flash readings, and key central financial institution indicators (FOMC Minutes, PBoC, Banxico). A number of holidays skinny liquidity early within the week — the US, Canada, China, South Korea, and most of Latin America are closed on Monday. Right here’s what to look at.
⚠ Vacation Watch: US closed Monday (Washington’s Birthday). Canada closed Monday (Household Day). China closed Mon–Fri (Chinese language New Yr). South Korea closed Mon–Wed (Korean New Yr). Brazil closed Mon–Tue (Carnival), Wed (Ash Wednesday). Argentina, Venezuela, Ecuador closed Mon–Tue (Carnival). Skinny liquidity throughout Asia and LATAM early within the week.
Three Themes That Will Outline the Week
| 1 | US GDP + PCE Friday blockbuster: The advance This fall GDP estimate (consensus +2.8% annualized, down from +4.4%) and December core PCE (consensus 3.0% YoY, up from 2.8%) land concurrently Friday at 08:30 ET — the mix defines the Fed’s price path into the March FOMC. |
| 2 | Central financial institution indicators — FOMC Minutes, PBoC, and Banxico: Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes reveal the hawkish tilt from the January maintain. Thursday’s PBoC Mortgage Prime Fee determination comes with China nonetheless on vacation. Mexico’s Banxico financial coverage minutes (Thursday) present the most recent sign on LATAM’s largest economic system easing cycle. A number of Fed audio system (Bowman, Daly, Bostic, Kashkari, Goolsbee, Logan) all through the week add additional coloration. |
| 3 | International inflation + PMI sweep: UK CPI (Wed), Japan CPI (Thu evening), Canada CPI (Tue), and flash February PMIs throughout the US, Eurozone, UK, and Japan (Thu–Fri) present a complete learn on the worldwide inflation/progress trade-off. Mexico’s Banxico minutes (Thu), Brazil’s IBC-Br (Thu), and Colombia This fall GDP (Mon) anchor the LATAM macro image. |
Week at a Look — Excessive-impact occasions solely
| Day | Time | Area | Occasion | Cons. | Prior |
| Mon | 10:00 | COLOMBIA | GDP YoY / QoQ (This fall) | 3.1% / — | 3.6% / 1.2% |
| Tue | 02:00 | UK | Employment / Unemployment Fee (Dec) | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Tue | 05:00 | EU | German ZEW Financial Sentiment (Feb) | 65.2 | 59.6 |
| Tue | 08:30 | CANADA | Core CPI Measures (Jan) | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Wed | 02:00 | UK | CPI YoY (Jan) | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| Wed | 14:00 | US | FOMC Assembly Minutes | — | — |
| Thu | 07:00 | BRAZIL | IBC-Br Financial Exercise (Dec) | — | +0.70% |
| Thu | 08:30 | US | Jobless Claims / Philly Fed (Feb) | 229K / 7.8 | 227K / 12.6 |
| Thu | 10:00 | MEXICO | Banxico Financial Coverage Minutes | — | — |
| Thu | 18:30 | JAPAN | Nationwide CPI / Core CPI YoY (Jan) | — / 2.0% | 2.1% / 2.4% |
| Fri | 08:30 | US | GDP QoQ Annualized (This fall adv.) | +2.8% | +4.4% |
| Fri | 08:30 | US | Core PCE Worth Index YoY (Dec) | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| Fri | 09:45 | US | Flash PMIs (Feb) — Mfg / Providers | 52.1 / 52.8 | 52.4 / 52.7 |
| Fri | 10:00 | US | Michigan Sentiment (Feb, remaining) | 57.3 | 57.3 |
Week in Context
It is a week of two halves: skinny liquidity early (US Presidents’ Day Monday, Chinese language New Yr closures by Friday, Carnival closures throughout LATAM) giving manner to an information avalanche from Wednesday onward. Canada CPI was rescheduled from Monday to Tuesday (Feb 17) — it’s the final inflation learn earlier than the March 13 BoC assembly. The FOMC Minutes on Wednesday will reveal how firmly the January hawkish maintain was supported. Friday is the fulcrum: the advance This fall GDP print (BEA’s first launch) lands alongside December PCE — the Fed’s most popular inflation gauge. Chair Powell has flagged that CPI-based estimates suggest core PCE rose to three.0% YoY. If confirmed, this may characterize an acceleration that closes the door on near-term cuts. For LATAM: Colombia This fall GDP Monday, Brazil’s IBC-Br Thursday, Mexico’s Banxico minutes Thursday, and Mexico retail gross sales Friday present a complete regional image. Flash PMIs Friday throughout the US, Eurozone, UK, and Japan give the primary February exercise learn.
Monday — February 16
US closed (Washington’s Birthday) · Canada closed (Household Day) · China (Chinese language New Yr) · South Korea (Korean New Yr) · Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador (Carnival)
| Time | Area | Occasion | Influence | Cons. | Prior |
| 01:30 | INDIA | WPI Inflation YoY (Jan) | MED | 1.25% | 0.83% |
| 04:00 | INDIA | Commerce Stability (Jan) | MED | −26.14B | −25.04B |
| 05:00 | EU | Eurozone Industrial Manufacturing MoM (Dec) | MED | −1.5% | +0.7% |
| 05:00 | EU | Eurogroup Conferences | LOW | — | — |
| 06:25 | BRAZIL | BCB Focus Market Readout | MED | — | — |
| 08:15 | CANADA | Housing Begins (Jan) | LOW | 266.0K | 282.4K |
| 08:25 | US | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | MED | — | — |
| 08:30 | CANADA | Manufacturing Gross sales MoM (Dec) | LOW | +0.5% | −1.2% |
| 10:00 | COLOMBIA | GDP YoY / QoQ (This fall) | HIGH | 3.1% | 3.6% |
| 10:00 | PERU | GDP YoY (Dec) / Unemployment Fee (Jan) | MED | — / — | 1.53% / 5.9% |
| 12:40 | EU | Buba President Nagel Speaks | MED | — | — |
Vacation-Thinned Session: US, Canada, China, South Korea, and most of Latin America are closed. Eurozone Industrial Manufacturing (cons. −1.5% MoM, a pointy reversal from +0.7%) anchors European buying and selling. Colombia This fall GDP (cons. 3.1%, down from 3.6%) and Peru information spherical out the LATAM image on a holiday-thinned day. Bowman speaks regardless of the US vacation.
Tuesday — February 17
China (Chinese language New Yr) · South Korea (Korean New Yr) · Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador (Carnival)
<tr>08:30USNY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb)MED8.507.70
| Time | Area | Occasion | Influence | Cons. | Prior |
| 02:00 | UK | Unemployment Fee (Dec) / Claimant Depend (Jan) | HIGH | 5.1% / 22.8K | 5.1% / 17.9K |
| 02:00 | UK | Common Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) | HIGH | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| 02:00 | EU | German CPI YoY (Jan, remaining) / HICP YoY (Jan) | MED | 2.1% / 2.1% | 2.1% / 2.1% |
| 05:00 | EU | German ZEW Financial Sentiment (Feb) | HIGH | 65.2 | 59.6 |
| 05:00 | EU | EZ ZEW Financial Sentiment (Feb) | MED | 45.2 | 40.8 |
| 04:30 | S. AFRICA | Unemployment Fee (This fall) | MED | — | 31.90% |
| 08:30 | CANADA | CPI YoY (Jan) / CPI MoM (Jan) | HIGH | — / +0.1% | 2.4% / −0.2% |
| 08:30 | CANADA | Core CPI YoY (Jan) / Trimmed CPI (Jan) / Median CPI (Jan) | HIGH | — / 2.6% / 2.5% | 2.8% / 2.7% / 2.5% |
| 10:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb) | MED | 38 | 37 |
| 10:00 | COLOMBIA | Commerce Stability (Dec) | MED | — | −1.550B |
| 12:45 | US | Fed Vice Chair Barr Speaks | MED | — | — |
| 14:30 | US | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | MED | — | — |
Multi-Entrance Tuesday: UK employment information leads off — watch the unemployment price and wage progress, which the BoE dovish faction has cited as justification for additional easing. German ZEW sentiment (cons. 65.2, up from 59.6) exams post-election optimism. Canada’s core CPI measures (Trimmed, Median, Widespread) are the true focus at 08:30 — the BoC watches these carefully for its March 13 determination. Colombia commerce information provides LATAM context. Fed Vice Chair Barr and FOMC Member Daly communicate within the afternoon, rounding out the central financial institution commentary.
Wednesday — February 18
China (Chinese language New Yr) · South Korea (Korean New Yr) · Brazil (Ash Wednesday) · Jamaica (Ash Wednesday)
| Time | Area | Occasion | Influence | Cons. | Prior |
| 02:00 | UK | CPI YoY (Jan) / Core CPI YoY (Jan) | HIGH | 3.0% / 3.1% | 3.4% / 3.2% |
| 02:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM (Jan) / PPI Enter MoM (Jan) | MED | 0.2% / 0.4% | 0.0% / −0.2% |
| 02:45 | EU | French CPI YoY (Jan, remaining) | MED | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 03:00 | S. AFRICA | CPI YoY (Jan) / Core CPI YoY (Jan) | MED | — / — | 3.6% / 3.3% |
| 08:00 | US | Sturdy Items Orders MoM (Dec) / Core (Dec) | MED | −1.8% / +0.3% | +5.3% / +0.4% |
| 08:30 | US | Housing Begins (Dec) / Constructing Permits (Dec) | MED | 1.330M / 1.420M | 1.246M / 1.411M |
| 09:15 | US | Industrial Manufacturing MoM (Jan) / Capability Util. (Jan) | MED | +0.4% / 76.4% | +0.4% / 76.3% |
| 10:27 | ARGENTINA | Funds Stability (Jan) | MED | — | −2,876M |
| 12:00 | EU | ECB’s Schnabel Speaks | MED | — | — |
| 13:00 | US | 20-Yr Bond Public sale / Bowman Speaks | MED | — | 4.846% |
| 14:00 | US | FOMC Assembly Minutes | HIGH | — | — |
UK CPI + FOMC Minutes — The Twin Pillars: UK CPI consensus at 3.0% YoY (down from 3.4%) could be welcome reduction for BoE doves — if it drops beneath 3%, March price minimize odds might surge. Core CPI at 3.1% (from 3.2%) reveals sluggish progress. South African CPI provides EM inflation context. US sturdy items, housing begins, and industrial manufacturing present a real-economy backdrop earlier than the primary occasion: the FOMC Minutes at 14:00 ET. The January assembly’s hawkish maintain was clear, however the minutes will reveal whether or not any willingness to chop exists if the labor market softens. Argentina’s January price range steadiness supplies a fiscal examine on Milei’s austerity program.
Thursday — February 19
China (Chinese language New Yr)
| Time | Area | Occasion | Influence | Cons. | Prior |
| 04:00 | EU | EZ Present Account (Dec) / ECB Financial Bulletin | MED | 9.2B / — | 8.6B / — |
| 07:00 | BRAZIL | IBC-Br Financial Exercise Index (Dec) | HIGH | — | +0.70% |
| 08:20 | US | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | MED | — | — |
| 08:30 | US | Preliminary Jobless Claims / Persevering with Claims | HIGH | 229K / — | 227K / 1,862K |
| 08:30 | US | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) | HIGH | 7.8 | 12.6 |
| 08:30 | US | Commerce Stability (Dec) / Items Commerce Stability | MED | — / −85.20B | −56.80B / −84.72B |
| 09:00 | US | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | MED | — | — |
| 10:00 | US | Pending House Gross sales MoM (Jan) | MED | +2.4% | −9.3% |
| 10:00 | EU | Shopper Confidence (Feb, prelim) | MED | −12.0 | −12.4 |
| 10:00 | MEXICO | Financial Coverage Assembly Minutes | HIGH | — | — |
| 10:30 | US | Fed Goolsbee Speaks | MED | — | — |
| 14:00 | ARGENTINA | Commerce Stability (Jan) | MED | — | — |
| 18:30 | JAPAN | Nationwide CPI YoY (Jan) / Core CPI YoY (Jan) | HIGH | — / 2.0% | 2.1% / 2.4% |
| 19:00 | EU | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | MED | — | — |
| 20:00 | CHINA | PBoC Mortgage Prime Fee (Feb) | HIGH | — | 3.50% |
US Labor + International In a single day Bonanza: Jobless claims and Philly Fed present the primary post-NFP reads on US labor market well being — the Philly Fed’s prices-paid part (prior 46.90) is a number one inflation indicator. Bostic, Kashkari, and Goolsbee all communicate, making this the heaviest Fed speaker day. Mexico’s Banxico minutes at 10:00 are essential for LATAM charges merchants after the latest easing cycle. Argentina commerce information continues the Milei fiscal monitoring. Brazil’s IBC-Br financial exercise index at 07:00 is the BCB’s most popular GDP proxy. In a single day: Japan CPI (core cons. 2.0%, down from 2.4%) is vital for BoJ price expectations. The PBoC Mortgage Prime Fee determination rounds out the Asian session.
Friday — February 20
China (Chinese language New Yr)
| Time | Area | Occasion | Influence | Cons. | Prior |
| 02:00 | UK | Retail Gross sales MoM (Jan) | MED | +0.2% | +0.4% |
| 02:00 | EU | German PPI YoY (Jan) | MED | −2.2% | −2.5% |
| 03:15 | EU | French Flash Mfg PMI (Feb) / Providers PMI (Feb) | MED | 51.0 / 49.1 | 51.2 / 48.4 |
| 03:30 | EU | German Flash Mfg PMI (Feb) / Providers PMI (Feb) | HIGH | 49.6 / 49.1 | 49.1 / 52.4 |
| 04:00 | EU | EZ Flash Mfg PMI (Feb) / Providers PMI (Feb) | HIGH | 50.0 / 51.9 | 49.5 / 51.6 |
| 04:30 | UK | Flash Mfg PMI (Feb) / Providers PMI (Feb) | HIGH | 51.5 / 53.4 | 51.8 / 54.0 |
| 06:30 | INDIA | RBI MPC Assembly Minutes | MED | — | — |
| 07:00 | MEXICO | Retail Gross sales YoY (Dec) / MoM (Dec) | MED | — / — | 4.4% / 1.0% |
| 08:30 | US | GDP QoQ Annualized (This fall advance) | HIGH | +2.8% | +4.4% |
| 08:30 | US | Core PCE Worth Index YoY (Dec) / MoM (Dec) | HIGH | 3.0% / +0.3% | 2.8% / +0.2% |
| 08:30 | US | PCE Worth Index YoY (Dec) / MoM (Dec) | MED | 2.9% / +0.4% | 2.8% / +0.2% |
| 08:30 | US | Private Earnings MoM (Dec) / Private Spending (Dec) | MED | +0.3% / +0.4% | +0.3% / +0.5% |
| 08:30 | CANADA | Retail Gross sales MoM (Dec) / Core Retail Gross sales (Dec) | MED | −0.4% / +0.1% | +1.3% / +1.7% |
| 09:45 | US | Flash Mfg PMI (Feb) / Providers PMI (Feb) | HIGH | 52.1 / 52.8 | 52.4 / 52.7 |
| 09:45 | US | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | MED | — | — |
| 10:00 | US | Michigan Shopper Sentiment (Feb, remaining) | MED | 57.3 | 57.3 |
| 10:00 | US | New House Gross sales (Dec) | MED | 735K | 737K |
| 12:30 | BRAZIL | International Change Flows | MED | — | −0.294B |
| 13:15 | US | Fed Logan Speaks | MED | — | — |
The Week’s Climax — GDP + PCE Double Header: Friday is essentially the most data-dense session of the week. European flash PMIs roll from 03:15 ET — German manufacturing (cons. 49.6, from 49.1) exams whether or not restoration is gaining traction, however German companies slipping to 49.1 (from 52.4) could be a warning. UK PMIs at 04:30 present manufacturing at 51.5 and companies at 53.4. Mexico retail gross sales at 07:00 present consumption information for LATAM’s largest economic system. The US 08:30 ET window is the fulcrum: This fall GDP advance estimate (cons. +2.8% annualized, sharply down from +4.4%) and December core PCE (cons. 3.0% YoY, up from 2.8%) outline the Fed’s price path. If GDP disappoints AND PCE runs sizzling, that’s the stagflationary mixture that closes the door on 2026 cuts. Canadian retail gross sales add to the BoC image. US flash PMIs at 09:45 present the primary February exercise learn. Brazil FX flows at 12:30 spherical out the LATAM information week.
Backside Line
It is a week of two halves with repricing threat concentrated within the again finish. Monday is a skeleton session with most main markets closed — Canada CPI and Colombia This fall GDP are the exceptions value watching. Tuesday’s UK employment information and Canada CPI wake issues up. Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and UK CPI set the desk. Thursday delivers Brazil IBC-Br, Mexico’s Banxico minutes, and a loaded US information slate plus Japan CPI in a single day. However Friday is the primary occasion — the GDP + PCE double-header at 08:30 ET carries the very best single-session vol potential of the week. For charges merchants: weak GDP + sizzling PCE = the stagflationary final result that kills remaining minimize expectations. Robust GDP + cool PCE = the soft-landing narrative stays intact and threat rallies. Flash PMIs throughout all main economies present the primary February exercise snapshot. Mexico retail gross sales and Brazil FX flows spherical out the LATAM information week. Place for Friday morning repricing, and respect the skinny liquidity early within the week.
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