Colombia seems calm from a distance: the economic system is rising, the foreign money has firmed and vacationers preserve arriving. However beneath that floor, the nation is quietly build up an exterior tab with the remainder of the world that ought to make buyers, migrants and exporters listen.
Within the third quarter of 2025, Colombia’s present account deficit – the broadest measure of what the nation owes or earns overseas – reached $2.853 billion, or 2.4% of GDP. That’s $427 million greater than within the earlier quarter.
The core drawback is straightforward: Colombians purchase extra items from abroad than they promote, and so they ship giant quantities of earnings and curiosity to overseas buyers.
A commerce deficit in items of $4.037 billion plus $3.170 billion in internet funds to overseas capital have been solely partly offset by $4.213 billion in remittances and a surplus in providers akin to tourism, aviation and enterprise outsourcing.
In different phrases, the nation leans closely on Colombians overseas and on the service economic system to pay the import and revenue invoice created at house.
To date, financing that hole has not been a wrestle. In the identical quarter, overseas capital inflows totaled $10.377 billion, whereas Colombian cash going out reached $8.009 billion.
Colombia’s reserves sign warning
Worldwide reserves rose by $534 million. For now, the world remains to be prepared to fund Colombia’s habits at an inexpensive worth. The chance is what occurs if that belief weakens.
An economic system that is dependent upon authorities spending, credit score and imports moderately than regular non-public funding and aggressive exports is extra uncovered when world charges rise or commodity costs fall.
Additionally they trace at whether or not market-friendly reforms are inspired or pushed apart in favor of simpler fixes. A stronger peso makes overseas items cheaper in the present day, however can quietly hole out native business and slender the export base tomorrow.
For expats, overseas professionals and offshore buyers, these balance-of-payments tables are an early-warning system.
They present whether or not the nation resides inside its means, whether or not the peso is backed by arduous export and funding flows, and the way a lot room policymakers actually have to vow new applications with out asking future generations to select up the invoice.
